New England Patriots primed to ‘survive’ QB Tom Brady suspension
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Editor’s note: This story was originally posted in April, when Tom Brady Jerseys’s four-game suspension was reinstated. Brady’s appeal was denied by the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday. He could still take his case to the U.S. Supreme Court, but as of now Brady will miss the Patriots Jerseys’ first four games of the 2016 season.
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The NFL’s on-again, off-again suspension of New England Patriots Jerseys Jerseys quarterback Tom Brady Jerseys flipped to the “on” switch Monday morning. A panel of the United States Court of Appeals reinstated Brady’s four-game suspension resulting from the Deflategate incident, arguing that the league and commissioner Roger Goodell acted within the rules of the collective bargaining agreement in suspending Brady for a quarter of the regular season. Just when we were getting a little short on off-field intrigue, right?
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To some extent, this isn’t a surprise. As the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport pointed out on Twitter, Brady dropped his base salary from $9 million to $1 million as part of his new contract restructuring/extension, which means he’ll only lose $250,000 as part of a four-game suspension as opposed to $2.25 million. Oral arguments suggested that the NFL’s chances of winning the appeal were strong.
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The case will undoubtedly continue through the legal system, but the current lay of the land suggests that Brady will miss the first four games of 2016, so let’s approach the Patriots Jerseys’ state of affairs with that likelihood in mind. Are they doomed? Does this dramatically shift the balance of power in the AFC East or the AFC as a whole?
Editor’s PicksAfter March 3 hearing, ruling against Tom Brady Jerseys not a surprise
The U.S. appeals court ruling to reinstate New England Patriots Jerseys Jerseys QB Tom Brady Jerseys’s four-game suspension means Jimmy Garoppolo Jerseys will likely start Week 1.
We can’t predict the future, of course, but most evidence indicates that the dropoff from Brady to backup Jimmy Garoppolo Jerseys won’t be quite the doomsday scenario one could have in mind. When Brady was due to be suspended for the first four games of the 2015 season, I looked into this very topic for Grantland and found that the difference between four games of Brady and four games of Garoppolo was a little more than a half-win, and the Vegas over/under line for the Patriots Jerseys’ full-season win total moved by a similar amount.
The idea of going from a Hall of Fame quarterback like Brady to a relatively inexperienced backup like Garoppolo seems like it would inspire an enormous swing, but the reality is that the Patriots Jerseys are well-equipped to handle such adversity. Even without Brady, they have a defense that was above-average by DVOA last year despite losing stars like Jamie Collins Jerseys, Dont’a Hightower Jerseys and Devin McCourty Jerseys for parts of the season with injuries. And barring an offseason injury, New England’s offensive infrastructure — notably Rob Gronkowski Jerseys and Julian Edelman Jerseys — will both be in the lineup to start the year, when Garoppolo would be forced into the lineup.
Even with Tom Brady Jerseys set to miss four games, Bill Belichick & Co. will be just fine. AP Photo/Steven Senne
It also helps that the coaching staff will still be there. The Patriots Jerseys still have Bill Belichick, one of the finest coaches in all of football. And while there could have been serious concerns about how Garoppolo might operate behind an offensive line that was patchwork at best for most of last season, the Patriots Jerseys were also able to convince legendary offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia to come out of retirement this offseason, which should provide the best possible protection for the Eastern Illinois product.
Garoppolo will also benefit from having time to take reps with the first-team offense during practice. Research I’ve done in the past suggests that quarterbacks who come in off of the bench mid-game play about 10 percent worse than when they start the game. While Brady will still take plenty of practice reps during the preseason, Garoppolo will get four weeks as the No. 1 guy in practice at the beginning of the year. Remember that when the Patriots Jerseys lost Brady for the year to a torn ACL in Week 1 of the 2008 season, a virtually untested Matt Cassel Jerseys came into the lineup for the remainder of the year. Cassel struggled at first, but once he grew more comfortable in what had previously been the most powerful offense in league history, his numbers improved:
Matt Cassel Jerseys, 2008CmpAttCmp%YdsYPATDINTQBRGames 1-815623367%15666.77751.6Games 9-1617128360.4%21277.514472.8
The undefeated 2007 Patriots Jerseys had the point differential of a 13.8-win team; that’s not as good as their actual 16-0 record, of course, but it’s the fifth-best Pythagorean differential since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, with the 1985 Bears Jerseys (14.1 wins) in first. The 2008 Patriots Jerseys went 11-5 with the point differential of a 10.6-win team. That’s a difference of 3.2 wins over the course of an entire season; split that up over a quarter of a season, and you can intimate that replacing four games of Brady with four games of Cassel cost the Patriots Jerseys 0.8 wins. That’s a very broad stroke, and the Patriots Jerseys’ defense fell from 11th in DVOA to 17th — which undoubtedly influenced some of the decline — but you get the idea. The difference between Brady and Garoppolo is going to be somewhere between a half-win and a full-win.
With Garoppolo as the only other quarterback remaining on its roster, New England will either have to draft a quarterback and/or sign a veteran in free agency. The Patriots Jerseys uncharacteristically have nearly $10 million in dead money tying up this year’s cap, thanks to the departures of Jerod Mayo Jerseys and Dominique Easley Jerseys, and they’ll only have about $300,000 or so to work with after using all of their draft picks. They can clear more space by releasing Danny Amendola Jerseys ($4.1 million in savings) and Marcus Cannon Jerseys ($3.7 million) or extending Hightower, who has a $7.7 million cap hold, but they’re not in a position to give Ryan Fitzpatrick Jerseys $9 million or really even to give former Brady backup Brian Hoyer Jerseys the $5 million or so he should be able to extract from a team over the next few weeks.
A more plausible target would be Rams Jerseys third-stringer Nick Foles Jerseys, who is undoubtedly available via trade and would only count for $1.75 million on his new team’s salary cap, thanks to the fact that the Rams Jerseys already paid their deposed starter a $6 million roster bonus earlier this offseason. Even if the Patriots Jerseys acquired somebody like Foles or Hoyer, though, chances are that it would be backup duty behind Garoppolo. And if they draft a quarterback, it’s far more likely to be a late-round flier in the Cassel mold than a second-round pick like Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg. Remember that the Pats are without their first-round pick — the other primary punishment from this seemingly never-ending saga; they’ll need to be judicious about how they use their top remaining pick in this year’s draft.
As for the teams they play over the first month of the season, well, things could be worse. New England starts the year by traveling to Arizona, and the Cardinals Jerseys have to be considered among the biggest winners if Brady were to be suspended for the opening month of the season. Coach Bruce Arians’ team finished fourth in pass defense DVOA last year, but that was also with a healthy safety in Tyrann Mathieu Jerseys, who may not be 100 percent at the beginning of the season after tearing his ACL late last year.
The Patriots Jerseys play another top-10 defense in the Texans Jerseys, who were seventh in pass defense DVOA last year, but that’s a team they comfortably beat last year 27-6. New England ran the ball 31 times in that game and attempted just 30 passes in an attempt to slow down defensive end J.J. Watt Jerseys, who did not record a sack and only managed to knock Brady down once. It would be no surprise to see a similar sort of game plan in the rematch. New England also faces the Dolphins Jerseys (29th in pass defense DVOA) and Bills Jerseys (18th); facing those two teams should be less stressful. If Brady was out, say, from Weeks 12-15, the Patriots Jerseys would be going up against three top-10 pass defense from a year ago in the Jets Jerseys, Rams Jerseys and top-ranked Broncos Jerseys.
There’s no way to spin this as a good thing for the Patriots Jerseys. Having Tom Brady Jerseys under center is always going to be better than having him standing on the sidelines in a parka, no matter how handsome you think he might look in said parka. This hurts the Patriots Jerseys’ chances of coming away with the top seed in the AFC, and we saw how much not having home-field advantage threw them off in Denver during the AFC Championship Game. This was also a team that won the AFC East by two games and came within two points of making it back to the Super Bowl to defend their title. Their margin for error in the regular season is reasonably high. The Patriots Jerseys should survive comfortably without Tom Brady Jerseys for a month. And when they get him back, well, you can imagine how cranky Brady’s going to be.